Research Questions:
What causal relationships exist between diet, specific gut microbiome profiles, and suicidal ideation (SI)?
How do dietary interventions influence the gut microbiome, and subsequently, suicidal ideation?
Can an agent-based model (ABM) effectively simulate these complex interactions and predict the impact of interventions on SI?
Objectives:
To identify gut microbiome markers associated with SI through exploratory data analysis of UK Biobank and Helius datasets.
To construct a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) illustrating the interplay between diet, gut microbiome, and SI, refined through expert consultation.
To develop and validate an Agent-Based Model (ABM) to simulate the dynamic influence of diet and gut microbiome on SI.
To explore the potential impact of hypothetical dietary interventions on SI outcomes using the ABM.
Scientific Rationale:
Suicide is a leading cause of death, with current treatments often insufficient. Emerging evidence suggests a crucial, yet underexplored, link between the gut microbiome and SI. For instance, specific gut bacteria like Phascolarctobacterium have been implicated in cognitive inflexibility and SI. Diet significantly modulates the microbiome, offering a promising avenue for novel preventative strategies, as indicated by correlations between certain foods and reduced suicide attempts. However, the precise causal mechanisms remain unclear. This project addresses this critical gap by employing an interdisciplinary systems approach. By first mapping causal relationships via a CLD and then developing an ABM, we aim to uncover the complex, dynamic interactions between diet, the gut microbiome, and SI. This will provide a robust framework for understanding these links and, crucially, for simulating and evaluating microbiome-based dietary interventions, paving the way for innovative and much-needed suicide prevention strategies.