Approved Research

Constructing risk prediction models of non-communicable diseases based on multiple risk factors

Lay summary

Aims: The proposed project aims to clarify the key risk factors for non-communicable disease (NCD) and construct its risk prediction models based on genetic, behavioral and environmental risk factors.

Scientific rationale: Over recent decades, rapid economic development and social advancements worldwide, as well as the lifestyle transition from nutrient deficiency to nutrient excess in developing regions have greatly increased the the morbidity and mortality of NCD, including diabetes, obesity, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and cardiometabolic disease. To meet this challenge, the United Nations have set goals of reducing premature deaths due to NCD by one-third by 2030 to achieve a sustainable health development. In fact, the most effective and cost-saving strategy to successfully decrease the burden of NCD is to adopt population-wide preventive measures in the early stages of the disease. Therefore, clarify key risk factors and construct prediction models based on these contributors hold great promise to identify high risk populations, thus improve their overall healthy life expectancy and avoid unnecessary medical costs. Since NCD resulted from a variety of genetic, behavioral and environmental risk factors, the prediction model that integrates multiple risk factors (such as the genetic- environmental factors cooperative prediction model) has better predictive performance in theory. Therefore, this project plans to construct risk prediction models of NCD based on multiple risk factors through collecting multidimensional data of UK biobank. 

Project duration: This project is expected to be completed in 36 months.

Public health impact: we believe the results of this project will effectively improve the risk stratification of NCD, optimize the effects of existing clinical care, and advance the development of translational medicine such as precise diagnosis and targeted therapy.