Developing chronic disease models to inform health policy and guide treatment decisions

Developing chronic disease models to inform health policy and guide treatment decisions

Lay summary

The programme of work will draw on detailed information from the UK Biobank study (around 500,000 people in the UK providing detailed data for research with more than 10 years of follow-up). The database includes rich descriptive information about participants at entry into the study as well as information on evolving diseases over time. We will use the UK Biobank database to develop reliable computer models that will predict future disease events (e.g. heart attacks, strokes and deaths) and effects of interventions in reducing these events in diseases such as heart disease, diabetes and kidney disease and in different types of people. The UK Biobank data will also be used to assess the healthcare costs required, thereby allowing the effects of disease events and interventions on these costs to be studied in the computer model. These models will be used to calculate how long people can expect to live, their quality of life, and the costs of healthcare they would require, and how these outcomes change depending on treatments used.  This is a long-term programme of work. We plan to report first results about the long-term cardiovascular disease risks and costs and the effects of statins in different groups of people in the coming two to three years. Given the importance of this work, we will present and discuss our methods and emerging results with doctors, policy makers and the general public throughout the programme.