Approved Research

Dietary protein sources, chronic disease incidence and mortality: a modelled food substitution analysis for identifying optimal diets for disease prevention

Lay summary

Chronic diseases such as those of heart and blood vessels are a major cause of death and affects 7 million people, while diabetes affects over 4 million people in the UK. Many chronic diseases can be slowed down or prevented by changing diet. However, the optimal diet to recommend for disease prevention is still being sought.

Food substitutions, meaning consuming one food instead of the other, could impact health, potentially reducing the risk of developing chronic diseases. Previous research has shown that meats affect health differently, in comparison to dairy or plant-based foods. For example, higher meat consumption is linked to a higher number of deaths and risk of developing chronic diseases, such as heart diseases, diabetes, colorectal cancer and dementia whilst higher consumption of dairy or plant-based foods (including legumes) appears to be neutral or protective against these disease outcomes. Evidence has also shown that substituting a certain amount of red meat with a certain amount of dairy or plant-based food is associated with lower risk of heart diseases. Dietary guidelines could be adapted to consider the relationships observed between different food sources of protein with health.

Limited numbers of studies exists that have investigated the associations between substituting meats with alternative food sources of protein and mortality and risk of chronic diseases . Also, evidence for different types of meat, dairy and plant foods in relation to chronic disease risk and mortality, is still needed. This three-year project aims to investigate the association between substitution of meats with dairy and plant-based foods on chronic disease risk in UK adults, to identify the best type of diet for chronic disease prevention.

We will analyse data from the UK Biobank Study to model food substitutions. Through this, we can get a better understanding of the current dietary patterns and how they relate to common chronic diseases in the UK middle-aged population. Our findings may guide the design of food-based dietary guidelines and food products that encourage healthy eating.