Approved Research

Health risks of chronic diseases associated with meteorological index and air pollutants: evaluation and projections under different climate change scenarios

Lay summary

Extremes and shifts in meteorological index and air pollution under climate change, each of which may have independent yet connected effects on health risks of chronic diseases. Although some studies have reported increased morbidity and mortality associated with air pollution and extreme meteorological condition, very few longitudinal studies have investigated the health risks of them under climate change. Thus, we plan to explore the health risks of chronic diseases associated with meteorological index and air pollutants in different sub-groups under climate change background using longitudinal study design.

The UK Biobank collects information about the address location and health outcomes of the study participants, and we will combine such data resources with the environmental exposure dataset. The state-of-the-art statistical models including meteorological and air quality models will be used to estimate the changes of meteorological index and air pollution exposure levels of the study participants. On the basis of individual level prediction models for chronic disease, we aim to project health risks of meteorological index and air pollution on chronic diseases under different climate change scenarios in the future.

We plan to perform our research for 36 months. By evaluating the health risks of chronic diseases associated with meteorological index and air pollution, and making projections of the health risks under different climate changes scenarios, the research will help to provide scientific evidence for policy-making towards mitigating health risks of chronic diseases under climate change in the future.