Approved Research

Impact on population health and health care cost-savings of healthy and sustainable diet transitions in the UK

Lay summary

We plan to study how changing to healthier and more environment-friendly diets (usually described by eating less meat, and eating more fruits, vegetables, legumes, and whole grains) in the UK can affect people's health. To do this, we will build a simulation model that will use data from the UK Biobank to create a simulated population of individuals. Then, we'll see what happens to their health when they follow different diets. After that, we will measure how those changes in health could impact the economy, for example, how much money could the NHS save by preventing cases of obesity.

We will use traditional methods to estimate the risk of developing certain diseases, and also explore using machine learning algorithms to increase the accuracy of those estimations. These algorithms are computer programs that work by "learning" from data over time to understand patterns that may not be obvious for a human. By doing this, we can incorporate variables or techniques not previously considered, which can make our predictions about the health effects of changing to healthier and more eco-friendly diets more accurate.

This research is important because diets in the UK are not healthy (as recommended by the NHS's EatWell Guide) or eco-friendly. This can lead to health problems like obesity and other diseases, some of which have gotten worse during the COVID-19 pandemic. There is not a lot of information about how people change their eating habits to be healthier and more eco-friendly, so we want to study potential health and economic effects of these diet changes. As meat is a key part of this topic, we will include an iron-related blood condition called anaemia in our models.

This knowledge can then help the government create better policies and campaigns to encourage people to eat healthily and more eco-friendly. Our research can help the public understand the effects of different diets on their health and the economy. By showing what could happen with various food choices, we can help people decide what to eat. It can also help identify groups of people who might need extra support to make these changes.

This project will take place over 36 months.