The epidemiology of liver disease in a population-based cohort.

This project aims to better understand the epidemiology of liver disease in a general population context. A particular focus will be paid to uncovering the risk factors associated with the new onset of liver disease. We intend to translate this knowledge into a prognostic model that predicts the near-term risk of new onset liver disease. The ultimate aim is to enable clinicians to identify individuals at high risk and intervene appropriately. Death from liver disease are rising in the UK, whilst it is falling in other European settings (Leon et al, 2006; Williams et al, 2014). We need to improve our understanding of the determinants of liver disease in order to thwart this worrying trend. Our intention to build an `early-warning` prognostic model would have direct clinical application, and is very much in keeping the the UK Biobank mission statement of `supporting a diverse range of research intended to improve the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of illness and the promotion of health throughout society` We will compare persons who do and do not go on to develop liver disease subsequent to their UK Biobank interview. Our aim is to try and tease out, what factors distinguishes these two groups. We will search for differences across an array of categories: in particular, alcohol consumption, genetic markers, social-demographic factors, and biochemistry markers. We intend then to use what we learn to build a risk prediction tool that informs individual patients of their near-term risk for liver failure. All participants